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S&P 500
SPX • Past 6H
Past 3D:
NEUTRAL
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Probabilistic pattern models and technical frameworks signal limited SPX downside with near-term support, implying muted selling pressure and a bias toward range-bound or modestly higher prices
- An underlying earnings/growth thesis and multi-month upside projections support a longer-term risk-on backdrop that reinforces constructive positioning in SPX
Negative Drivers (2)
- Persistent trade tensions and AI disruption concerns remain headline tail-risks that can cap near-term upside and trigger sudden sector-specific volatility
- Unexpected macro prints, geopolitical shocks or intraday liquidity gaps could overwhelm technical support and cause rapid downside
NDX
NASDAQ 100
NDX • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BULLISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- AMD's multi-year AI-chip supply deal with Meta materially increases semiconductor demand expectations and should lift flows into large-cap Nasdaq-100 technology components.
- Nasdaq-100's technical resilience, trading roughly 4.5% below its all-time high with positive futures prints, signals elevated short-covering potential and momentum-driven near-term upside.
Negative Drivers (2)
- An unexpected hawkish U.S. macro or Federal Reserve surprise that re-prices growth assets could quickly reverse Nasdaq-100 gains.
- Idiosyncratic shocks or rapid profit-taking in concentrated mega-cap tech names, including any setback to Meta's AI spending, could trigger sharp intraday reversals in NDX.
RTY
Russell 2000
RTY • Past 6H
Past 3D:
NEUTRAL
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Intraday ETF inflows lifted IWM and broad US equity ETFs, signaling short-term risk-on positioning that should support Russell 2000 liquidity and prices.
- Fresh allocations into yield-seeking products like the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF indicate higher-beta appetite that can spill over into demand for small-cap stocks.
Negative Drivers (2)
- A surge of 400,000+ puts and roughly $1bn of outflows from the BKLN senior-loan ETF signals rising leveraged-loan and software credit stress that increases funding and default risk for credit-sensitive Russell 2000 issuers.
- Crowded bearish positioning in loan-focused ETFs raises the likelihood of forced deleveraging and rapid volatility for small-cap credit names if spreads reprice.
DXY
US Dollar Index
DXY • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BULLISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Sustained hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and firmer U.S. labor data are delaying rate-cut expectations, lifting U.S. yields and supporting DXY via wider yield differentials.
- DXY technical positioning — an ascending-triangle and consistent mid-97s dip-buying — together with USD/JPY weakness and BoE dovishness increases the odds of an upside breakout in the Dollar Index.
Negative Drivers (2)
- Targeted FX intervention and reported dollar sales by foreign central banks, notably likely RBI operations, are supplying USD liquidity and can cap further DXY gains.
- Renewed tariff-policy announcements and firmer EUR/GBP readings are reducing USD conviction and can introduce near-term downside pressure on the Dollar Index.
EUR
Euro
EUR • Past 6H
Past 3D:
NEUTRAL
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- EU confirmation of a EUR90 billion loan to Ukraine narrows political‑risk premia and should modestly support EUR demand
- Fitch forecasts stronger euro‑area household consumption and GDP momentum, supporting EUR via firmer domestic fundamentals and sustained euro‑denominated bond demand
Negative Drivers (2)
- U.S. 10% global tariffs and delays in EU‑U.S. trade approvals elevate trade uncertainty and drive risk‑off USD flows that pressure EUR
- ECB enforcement actions and a recent bank capital‑reporting fine raise euro‑area bank risk premia and weigh on EUR liquidity and demand
AUD
Australian Dollar
AUD • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BULLISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Sticky Australian inflation at 3.6% and RBA signalling a higher-for-longer stance widen the yield gap versus peers, boosting carry demand and supporting AUD appreciation
- Technical support at the 50-day EMA (~0.6900) encourages buy-the-dip flows and provides a floor that limits downside risk
Negative Drivers (2)
- AUD/USD is stalling around 0.7100 resistance, capping near-term upside
- Broad US dollar strength and short-term consolidation risk limit immediate breakthroughs toward multi-year highs
NZD
New Zealand Dollar
NZD • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BEARISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- JPY weakness has lifted NZD/JPY to session highs near 0.5970, supporting near-term NZD demand
- A modest rise in short-end NZ yields and a flatter 2s10s curve have improved front-end carry and provided transient support to NZD
Negative Drivers (2)
- RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% and signalled tightening will be deferred into late 2026, reducing the NZD's rate-risk premium and imposing downward pressure on the currency
- New Zealand's NZD 8m aid package and new sanctions on Russia raise geopolitical and fiscal risk, creating modest risk-off pressure that dampens NZD
CAD
Canadian Dollar
CAD • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BEARISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (0)
Negative Drivers (2)
- Preliminary January factory sales likely fell about 3.3%, signalling domestic demand weakness that lowers Bank of Canada rate-support expectations and pressures the Canadian dollar.
- USMCA renewal uncertainty and a resurgent US dollar with USD/CAD testing technical confluence near 1.3728 amplify risk-off flows and intraday volatility, favouring further CAD depreciation.
MXN
Mexican Peso
MXN • Past 6H
Past 3D:
NEUTRAL
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (1)
- Approximately 16.2% year‑over‑year peso appreciation and USD/MXN around 17.26 signal persistent MXN strength and support for carry-driven appreciation and reduced hedging demand
Negative Drivers (2)
- A tight 30‑day USD/MXN range (17.1322–17.4901) and subdued recent volatility increase the likelihood of range‑bound trading and limit momentum
- Absence of fresh domestic or global policy or macro catalysts leaves MXN exposed to abrupt USD bids from stronger US data or risk‑off shocks
XAU
Gold
XAU • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BEARISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Chinese Spring Festival retail buying surge has materially boosted physical gold off-take and is providing near-term price support.
- Reports of large U.S. gold repatriation and increased official/central-bank buying are tightening available physical supply and underpinning price floors.
Negative Drivers (2)
- Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and a firmer U.S. dollar have lifted real yields and raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, creating near-term downward pressure.
- Technical strength in the DXY, including an ascending-triangle setup, increases the probability of a dollar breakout and immediate downside risk for dollar-priced gold.
OIL
Crude Oil
OIL • Past 6H
Past 3D:
NEUTRAL
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (1)
- Canada's reduction of the Russian oil price cap and vessel sanctions risks lowering Russian seaborne exports and tightening global crude supply.
Negative Drivers (2)
- Iran signaled willingness to strike a deal with the U.S., easing the geopolitical supply-risk premium and putting downward pressure on prompt crude prices.
- Rising Venezuelan seaborne exports, including Chevron's Boscan cargo sale, increase heavy crude availability and compress sweet/sour differentials, pressuring prices.
BTC
Bitcoin
BTC • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BEARISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- On-chain MVRV normalization and improved exchange cumulative volume delta indicate reduced panic selling and demand absorption around the $62–64k band.
- Buyers absorbed liquidations and pushed BTC back above $64,000, signaling short-term price stabilization and reduced immediate downside.
Negative Drivers (2)
- Spot‑BTC ETF outflows and fund redemptions have withdrawn bid liquidity and compressed BTC's risk premium, increasing downside vulnerability.
- Large miner sales, notably Bitdeer converting newly mined BTC to cash, have added immediate supply and shifted the supply-demand balance toward sell-side pressure.
ETH
Ethereum
ETH • Past 6H
Past 3D:
BEARISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Ethereum Foundation plans to stake up to 70,000 ETH, materially locking supply and reducing future sell pressure.
- SEC approval of WisdomTree's tokenized money-market fund on Ethereum lowers regulatory barriers and should raise short-term institutional on-chain flows and fee revenue.
Negative Drivers (2)
- ETH is testing critical $1,800 support and a breach would likely accelerate downside toward $1,600, increasing short-term volatility.
- Persistent spot-ETF outflows, elevated exchange inflows, concentrated token sales and negative perpetual funding increase liquidation risk and short-side pressure.
2Y
Short-Term Rates
RATES_SHORT • Past 12H
Past 3D:
BULLISH
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- The 2-year Treasury auction stopped at 3.455% versus the prior 3.580%, a decisive lower stop that removes near-term term premium and supports 2Y-and-under prices.
- WisdomTree's 24/7 trading and instant-settlement tokenized Treasury money market fund creates continuous, round-the-clock demand that can support lower short-end yields.
Negative Drivers (2)
- Auction internals weakened with bid-to-cover falling to 2.63 and dealer absorption below the six-month average, raising the risk of future repricing and higher short-term yields.
- On-chain MMF instant settlement could shift cash off bank balance sheets, tightening reserves and lifting short-term rates if outflows accelerate.
10Y
Long-Term Rates
RATES_LONG • Past 12H
Past 3D:
NEUTRAL
Feb 24, 4 PM EST
Positive Drivers (2)
- Escalating US–Iran tensions are driving safe‑haven flows into long‑dated US Treasuries, exerting downward pressure on 10Y+ yields.
- 30‑year mortgage rates have fallen to multi‑month lows (~5.76%), compressing term premium and supporting lower 10Y+ yields via increased duration demand.
Negative Drivers (2)
- Spain's €7bn 30‑year syndicated bond drew >€110bn demand, diverting global long‑duration allocation away from US Treasuries and pushing 10Y+ yields higher.
- Persistent MBS/GSE reallocation and Fed messaging that cuts are not imminent have narrowed mortgage–10Y spreads and kept term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term Treasury yields.